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Morocco: A Future Giant of the Continent?

The changes in the geopolitics of the African continent, with several countries distancing themselves from their former economic partners (the old colonial powers), open a new space.


Morocco is one of the countries aiming to occupy this new position and assert itself as one of the continent's leaders.


Morocco's geopolitics is influenced by its strategic location in the North African region and its historical relations with its neighbors and global powers. Morocco is situated at the northwest tip of Africa, with an Atlantic coast and land borders with Algeria, Mauritania, and the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla.


This location provides access to both the Atlantic and the Mediterranean, making it a strategic point in maritime trade. Moreover, it also allows for a connection between the Sahel region and the Mediterranean, offering alternatives to the simple Gulf of Guinea for these countries. Recently, with the announced exit of the AES (Association of Sahel States) countries - composed of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, neighboring states proposed sanctions to limit the supply of products from their ports to these countries. Morocco proposed to develop and increase the flow through its ports to compensate for the sanctions.


Morocco maintains close ties with the European Union (EU), especially with Spain and France, due to geographical proximity and mutual economic interests, in addition to historical issues.


Today, Morocco is a significant partner in agriculture for Spain, which recently, due to drought problems, has become dependent on "its partner across the sea" to meet its needs for products. The difficulties of Moroccan agricultural production, also due to climate changes, seriously impacted the Spanish market in 2023, thus demonstrating the strength of this relationship in this specific sector.


Morocco is also an important transit point for migration from the Sahel to Europe. This raises issues such as border management, security, and cooperation in migration and regional security. The country cooperates with the European Union and other international actors to address these challenges. Who can forget the images and videos of dozens of people throwing themselves against the fences and barbed wire in Ceuta, seeking to enter Europe? Today, the focus of attention is the route between Morocco and the Spanish Canary Islands.


Morocco is active in regional and international organizations such as the Arab League, the African Union, and the United Nations (UN). Its foreign policy seeks to balance regional and global interests while defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity. It plays an active role in regional diplomacy, promoting multilateral cooperation among Sahel countries and supporting efforts to resolve conflicts and promote peace in the region. This includes participation in organizations such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).


Since the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020, which normalized relations between Morocco and Israel, the country has sought to strengthen its influence on the continent in various ways.


By establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, Morocco gained recognition and support from some African countries that followed this path or were considering doing so. This strengthened its diplomatic position and influence in Africa, especially in circles where normalization with Israel is viewed positively.


One of the main sources of regional tension between Morocco and Algeria is the issue of Western Sahara. Algeria supports the Polisario Front, a Sahrawi independence movement that contests Moroccan sovereignty over the region. Morocco, on the other hand, considers Western Sahara an integral part of its territory, and this difference has created persistent tensions. The international community advocates for a self-determination referendum for the Sahrawi people.


Since 1994, the land border between Morocco and Algeria has been closed, hampering trade and interaction between the two countries, which are involved in competition for political influence in North Africa and beyond. Each country seeks to strengthen its regional and international alliances, often competing on issues such as regional security, political stability, and economic relations.


With the recognition of Israel in the signing of the Abraham Accords, Morocco obtained in return the recognition and support of the United States on the issue of Western Sahara. This support now gives it a much stronger role in the region. The country has become a key player in the eyes of the Americans.


Morocco is seen as a bastion of stability in the North African region, especially compared to its neighbors, such as Algeria and Libya, which have faced political instability and internal conflicts. This makes Morocco an important partner for Western countries on regional security issues and combating terrorism, especially in the Sahel region, even though it has also suffered terrorist attacks in the past, such as the Casablanca bombings in 2003.


The Sahel region faces significant security challenges, with the presence of terrorist groups and extremist organizations. Morocco cooperates with Sahel countries on security initiatives, sharing intelligence, training security forces, and participating in joint operations to combat terrorism and transnational organized crime.


Morocco has sought to strengthen economic ties with Sahel countries through investments in various sectors such as energy, infrastructure, agriculture, and industry. This includes development projects and technical cooperation programs to promote economic growth and stability in the region.


Morocco also uses its public diplomacy and soft power to strengthen its relations with African countries. This includes cultural exchanges, educational initiatives, scholarship programs, and the promotion of the Arabic language and Moroccan culture. Sports achievements, such as reaching the semi-finals in the World Cup in Qatar, the first for an African country, also brought a sense of pride and love to the continent, not forgetting its reaffirmed support for the Palestinian cause during the competition, which was appreciated throughout the Arab world.


The Moroccan economy is diversified, with sectors such as tourism, agriculture, mining, automobile manufacturing, and sustainable energy playing significant roles.


The exploitation of natural resources, such as phosphates and fishing, is also crucial to the country's economy and influences its international relations.


The country is seeking to attract foreign investments and strengthen its economic ties with other regions of the world, especially Sub-Saharan Africa.


One of the standout economic sectors is the banking sector, where Moroccan banks exert considerable influence on the African continent, driven by a strategy of regional expansion and investments in various countries across the continent.


Moroccan banks, such as Attijariwafa Bank, Banque Centrale Populaire (BCP), and BMCE Bank of Africa, have expanded their operations to several African countries. This expansion is part of a strategy to diversify risks, capitalize on economic growth opportunities in emerging markets, and strengthen regional presence.


Between 2007 and 2014, for example, Attijariwafa Bank went from 723 branches to 1,647, a 168% increase, but more importantly, a 404% increase outside of Morocco, primarily in West Africa.


Moroccan banks are present in a wide range of African countries, including West African countries (such as Senegal, Ivory Coast, Mali, and Burkina Faso), Central African countries (such as Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of Congo), and East African countries (such as Kenya and Tanzania). This diversified geographic presence helps strengthen the influence of the Moroccan banking sector across the continent.


Recently, with the progressive exit of Western banks from the continent, Moroccan banks have reinforced their presence by purchasing the assets of the departing banks.


The presence of Moroccan banks on the continent is not limited to traditional banking services but also includes investments in infrastructure, financing development projects, and supporting local economic growth. This contributes to job creation, local skills development, and economic boost in the countries where they operate.


In addition to traditional operations, Moroccan banks invest in innovation and financial technology (fintech), providing advanced digital solutions that enhance financial inclusion and facilitate access to banking services for previously unbanked populations in various parts of the continent.


Moreover, Moroccan banks have played an important role in regional financial integration, facilitating intra-African trade, promoting the financing of regional projects, and supporting economic integration initiatives, such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

In summary, since the Abraham Accords, Morocco has sought to increase its political influence in Africa, strengthening its diplomatic relations, promoting economic and security cooperation, playing a leadership role in regional organizations, and effectively using its public diplomacy and soft power. These efforts aim to consolidate its position as an important actor on the African continent.


The influence of the Moroccan banking sector in Africa is substantial, contributing to economic development, regional integration, and promoting financial stability in a rapidly growing and transforming African context.


With this multifaceted dynamic, Morocco aims to occupy a new space that was not possible for it to reach in the past. It has indeed become an interface between Europe and Africa.


Marco Alves, Master in Political Science from the University of Paris Ouest Nanterre (formerly Paris X), in International and European Law from the University of Grenoble Alpes (formerly Grenoble II Pierre Mendes France), and in International Relations and Business from ILERI (Institute of International Relations of Paris).

He has worked in 28 countries, including Brazil, where he worked for 10 years, including for the Government of the State of Pernambuco.

He has worked for NGOs on the African continent as a specialist in economic recovery in post-conflict zones.

Today, he is the director of an international consultancy specializing in social science and engineering, with interventions in Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Mali, and Niger.

Consultant in strategic intelligence and risk management for the business sector.

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